Market insights

DXY Approaches 2024 Highs — Dollar Demand Rises

The Dollar Index (DXY) is once again testing the 105.70–106.00 area. The strengthening is linked to expectations of a “hard pause” from the Fed and stable US macro data. A strong dollar puts pressure on emerging market currencies and commodity currencies.

EUR/USD Vulnerable — Downtrend Persists

The pair remains below 1.0750. Fundamentally — weak Eurozone PMI, signs of slowing German economy, cautious ECB comments. Next target — 1.0650. The RSI indicator shows oversold conditions, but no reversal signal yet.

GBP/USD: Investors Await June BoE Meeting

The pair dropped to 1.2700 following a weak employment report. The probability of keeping the rate unchanged is high. Volatility is expected ahead of the decision. Support: 1.2670; Resistance: 1.2775.

USD/JPY: Threat of Currency Intervention Limits Upside

The pair hit the yearly high — above 157.50. The market prices in divergence in Fed and BoJ policy. However, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has increased rhetoric, hinting at possible intervention. Upside potential is limited to 158.00–158.50.

AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Falling Commodity Demand

The pair trades below 0.6600. The Chinese property sector remains under pressure, limiting demand for Australian goods. Weak Australian retail data adds further pressure.

NZD/USD: Weak Inflation Increases Chances of RBNZ Rate Cut

The pair is heading towards 0.6000. Recent data showed inflation in New Zealand slowed to 2.4%, increasing the likelihood of policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

USD/CHF: Safe Haven Interest Limited — Pair Maintains Sideways Trend

The pair remains in the 0.8900–0.9000 range. The franc temporarily loses popularity as a “safe haven” due to rising US Treasury yields. However, it could strengthen sharply in case of geopolitical risks.

USD/CAD Rises
Amid Falling Oil and Dovish BoC

The Bank of Canada shows no signs of further tightening. Meanwhile, Brent oil prices fell below $78, adding pressure on CAD. Upside target — 1.3850.

EUR/JPY Cross Reaches 17-Year High

Amid euro weakness and ultra-loose BoJ policy, EUR/JPY continues to rise, reaching 2008 levels. Technically, a correction from the 169.00–170.00 zone is possible, but the overall trend remains upward.

Forex Volatility May Spike Ahead of Fed Decision

The market is highly sensitive to Jerome Powell’s rhetoric. If hints of a possible rate hike persist — USD will continue to strengthen. If the Fed gives a “dovish signal” — a sharp rebound in risk currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP) is possible.